To Date, The Epicenter Is Not Just Metro Manila, But The Entire Mega Manila

As Posted by Drei @_drei Via Twitter

There are now 24 cities in the Philippines with more than 1,000 confirmed cases. This includes all cities in Metro Manila, 3 cities in Metro Cebu (Cebu, Lapu-Lapu, Mandaue), 3 cities in Laguna (Santa Rosa, Calamba, Biñan), Antipolo, and Davao City...

There are also 27 cities or municipalities where both ICUs and ventilators are highly utilised. Among these, 8 are in Metro Manila, 4 in Laguna, 3 in Cavite, and 2 each in Bulacan and Pangasinan. It's clear that the epicentre is not just Metro Manila, but the entire Mega Manila.

All epidemiological trends in the Philippines have bad news. Let's start with individuals testing positive. For the past week, there are at least 3K individuals testing positive every day. The last time Philippines had less than 1K positive test results was 49 days ago (24/June).


Fatality has also been increasing in the Philippines. When August started, the 7-day average fatality was 20.3 fatalities per day. As of the latest DOH data drop, the 7-day average fatality is currently at 27.1 fatalities per day.


Positivity rate still continues to increase since mid-June. The latest 7-day average positivity rate is at 12.9% while the cumulative positivity rate is now at 10%.


The average lag from onset of symptoms to confirmation of positive case has also increased, and is now at 14 days. Previously this number remained around 13 days for about a month. This means efficiency of both testing and validation processes has degraded.


And active cases in the Philippines has been the highest since the pandemic started, now at 66K. There are only 16 countries in the world today where the active cases are more than 50K. In the entire Asia Pacific region, it's only India, Russia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.

There are a couple of quasi-good news. Data quality of geographical data has improved, now at 83%. This still means there are more than 23K confirmed cases without any associated local government associated, almost 16K of which are in Metro Manila.

The other good news is for Cebu City. While local areas in Metro Cebu have the highest case-fatality rates, specifically Talisay, Naga, Carcar, and Cebu City, the rate of new cases has slowed down. Quezon City and Manila City on the other hand, are still on a steep increase.


It would have been a more accurate analysis to compare trends in case-fatality and not just cumulative rates, but this is now impossible as DOH removed pertinent date info since the second week of July. This is a call for DOH to return the field DateRepRem in the data drop.
This is the latest snapshot dashboard of #COVID19PH in the Philippines: public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19…
And this is the latest trend dashboard for the Philippines, as of last night's data drop from DOH: https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PHILIPPINESDASHBOARD/PHCharts

https://public.tableau.com/profile/andrei.martin.diamante#!/vizhome/COVID-19PHILIPPINESDASHBOARD/PhilippinesCOVID-19Dashboard

The author: Data analytics professional, university lecturer & photographer into films, music, gadgets, tennis & food. Have lived in 10 cities & traveled to 41 countries.
Melbourne, Australiaandreimartin.comJoined October 2009

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